2016 Lost Talent Index (LTI)

**  Coforepr  has once again applied its mathematical formula to the NFL Draft results.  Looking toward the 2016 college football season, the goal is to determine which college teams lost the most talent to the pros this spring.

**  The formula assumes that the NFL knows its stuff in the draft.  In other words, for example, that the 27th pick is a slightly better football player than the 28th, who was better than the 29th, and so forth.
**  Coforepr  does recognize that many NFL teams draft according to need, but for purposes of this index, the “best player available” was assumed.

**  Generally fans do not want to see their favorite team(s) on this list.  Inclusion in this Top 25 may well mean you can look forward to a down year compared to 2015.  Or, at the very least,
Your U will face the challenge of “reloading” instead of “rebuilding.”  That might not be a problem if you’re Alabama, Florida or Ohio State, but if you’re say, U.C.L.A., it could be a harbinger of a long season.

**  The average Lost Talent Index (LTI) rating for the average Associated Press Top 25 team is 1.00.  A number higher than 1.00 means your team lost more than the expected amount of talent to the pros; a rating less than 1.00 means you didn’t lose as much as the typical Top 25 team.

**  LTI, then, is based on two factors:  How many of your players went to the NFL, and how high in the draft did they go.  LTI is an invention of coforepr  and is used for entertainment purposes only.

**  Of course, other factors play into predicting how successful a team will be in an upcoming season.  Among them are returning starters, having your quarterback back in the fold, how well you recruited in recent years, and how your team performed in the most recent season.
**  For an early 2016 Top 25 based on these factors, please see the post  A Purely Mathematical Top 25.   It was published April 28, 2015.

Rank   Team                     Points         LTI         Players Drafted           2015 Record           2015 LTI Rank

1    Ohio State                  2387          4.28                   12                          12 –  1                          14
2    Alabama                     1446          2.59                     7                          14 –  1                            5
3    Notre Dame               1400          2.51                     7                          10 –  3                            –
4    Clemson                     1116          2.00                     9                          14 –  1                           12
5    Florida                          976          1.75                     7                          10 –   4                            4
6    U.C.L.A.                         827          1.48                     8                            8 –   5                            –
7    Baylor                           754          1.35                     6                          10 –  3                             –
.     West Virginia                754          1.35                     5                            8  –  5                            –
9    Penn State                    705          1.26                     5                            7  –  6                           –
10  Georgia                         679          1.22                     5                           10  – 3                          13
11  Stanford                       668           1.20                     5                           12  – 2                            6
12  Michigan State             650           1.17                    5                            12  – 2                          20
13  Mississippi                    632          1.13                     5                           10 –  3                            –
14  Southern California     586          1.05                     4                            8  –  6                            8
15  Boise State                    552            .990                  3                             9  –  4                           17
16  Oklahoma                     551            .988                  4                             11 – 2                           11
17  Texas Christian             548            .983                    5                           11  – 2                           –
18  Nebraska                       547           .981                    4                             6  – 7                            –
19  Mississippi State           522           .94                      3                             9  –  4                         16
20  Arkansas                        514           .92                      5                             8  –  5                         24
21  Louisiana State             495           .89                      5                             9  –  3                          22
22  Maryland                       488           .88                      3                             3  – 9                            –
23  North Carolina State    475           .85                      3                             7 –  6                            –
24  Texas A&M                    460            .83                     3                             8  –  5                           –
25  Florida State                 444            .80                     2                             10 –  3                          1

Next Five, in alphabetical order:   Auburn, California, Indiana, Louisiana Tech, Miami (Fla.)

**  In case you were wondering, Louisville was #2 in this index a year ago.  (See May 12, 2015 post Lost Talent Index  for the complete 2015 LTI.)

**  Last year’s #1 team in LTI was Florida State with a score of 3.04.  Ohio State’s score this year was more than 40% higher.

**  Alabama and Florida have both finished in the top five in LTI two years in a row.

**  Miami of Florida was #3 a year ago and id not make the Top 25 in 2016.

**  Based on these LTI ratings U.C.L.A., West Virginia and Penn State all underachieved, while
Florida State overachieved.

**  The only non-Power Five team on the above list is Boise State at #15.  Last year no Group of Five schools made the list.

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