** There are five FBS schools that play nine opponents who won eight games or more a year ago. Not surprisingly, all of them play in the SEC West. They are Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State and Mississippi. Alabama plays four of its eight-or-more-win opponents on the road and one on a neutral field.
** Two schools play six opponents who won 10 or more games in 2015. They are Ohio State and Illinois of the Big Ten. There are nine schools who play five opponents who won 10 or more games a year ago; L.S.U. is the only one of the nine from the SEC West.
** Coforepr used the final 2015 Sagarin rankings to determine the toughness of 2016 schedules. All of the 2016 opponents were ranked from toughest to easiest; the schools in the top 75% were given considerably more weight than schools in the bottom 25%. Furthermore, within the top 75%, schools at or near the middle of the list were awarded more weight than schools at or near the upper and lower extremes. This way, a very strong or very weak opponent had less effect on the final rating of difficulty of schedule.|
Here are the top seven (7). The higher the number, the tougher the 2016 schedule.
. 1) Southern California 82.75
. 2) Mississippi 82.14
. 3) Auburn 81.97
. 4) Louisiana State 81.55
. 5) Arkansas 81.52
. 6) Alabama 81.47
. 7) Wisconsin 78.54
** The simplest way to determine toughness of schedule is to look at the cumulative 2015 records of this coming season’s opponents. The NCAA favors this method, though they count only games against FBS opponents last year. Coforepr counts games against FCS opponents as well. (A good FCS team can be a challenge; a poor FCS team is typically a cakewalk.)
The Top 10 would be…
. 1) Louisiana State 108-52 .675
. 2) Arkansas 104-52 .667
. 3) Mississippi 102-52 .662
. 4) Auburn 100-56 .641
. 5) Southern California 101-58 .635
. 6) Wisconsin 98-57 .632
. 7) Brigham Young 97-57 .630
. 8) Alabama 97-58 .626
. 9) Northwestern 97-59 .622
. 10) Florida State 96-61 .611
** Another consideration is the number of “breathers” on a team’s schedule. Coforepr defines a breather as a game that should be easily won by a team of bowl caliber. In 2016 Southern California has only one breather – an October 8 home date against Colorado, which lost nine games a year ago. All 11 of the Trojans’ foes played in bowl games last season. Louisiana State, Mississippi and Northwestern each have only two breathers.
** Obviously it’s tougher to play on the road than it is at home. Kansas and Southern Methodist play six away games each.
** Coforepr calculated the average number of 2015 wins by 2016 road opponents.
These teams face, by this standard, the toughest road schedules. The average number of wins is given too.
. 1) Auburn 10.75
. 2) Brigham Young 9.5
. 3) Pittsburgh 9.4
. 4) Colorado 9.2
. Wisconsin 9.2
. 6) Alabama 9.0
. Georgia 9.0
. 8) Northwestern 8.8
. 9) Ohio State 8.6
. Southern California 8.6
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Coforepr mathematically combined all of the factors described in this article to determine the toughest 2016 college football schedules. The higher the number, the tougher the schedule.
Here are the seven (7) toughest schedules:
1) Louisiana State 44.25
2) Southern California 40.50
3) Mississippi 37.75
4) Auburn 36.25
5) Arkansas 35.25
6) Wisconsin 32.75
7) Northwestern 29.25
Four of the top five teams play in the rugged SEC West.
