Coforepr’s Measure of Schedule Difficulty

Today we take a look at the difficulty of the 2015 schedules to be faced by the nation’s top 30 FBS teams.

Points are awarded for playing ranked opponents; the higher their ranking, the more points awarded.  Also, road games are worth more points than home games.  The scale utilized is as follows:

Opponent          Rank         Points when you host     Points when you visit
Ohio State             1                       12.1                                 14.9
Texas Christian     2                       12.0                                 14.6
Alabama                3                       11.8                                 14.4
Baylor                    4                       11.6                                 14.2
Michigan State      5                       11.4                                 14.0
Oregon                  6                        11.2                                 13.8
Auburn                  7                        11.1                                 13.5
Southern Cal         8                        10.9                                 13.3
Florida State          9                        10.7                                 13.1
Georgia                 10                       10.5                                 12.9
Notre Dame          11                       10.3                                 12.7
L.S.U.                     12                       10.2                                 12.4
Clemson                13                       10.0                                 12.2
Mississippi            14                         9.8                                 12.0
U.C.L.A.                 15                         9.6                                  11.8
Arizona State        16                        9.4                                   11.6
Georgia Tech        17                        9.3                                   11.3
Oklahoma             18                        9.1                                   11.1
Wisconsin             19                        8.9                                   10.9
Stanford                20                        8.7                                  10.7
Arkansas               21                        8.5                                  10.5
Arizona                 22                         8.4                                  10.2
Boise State           23                         8.2                                  10.0
Tennessee            24                         8.0                                    9.8
Missouri               25                         7.8                                    9.6
Texas A&M                                        7.2                                    8.8
Mississippi State                               6.5                                    8.0
Virginia Tech                                     5.8                                    7.2
Oklahoma State                                5.2                                    6.3
Nebraska                                           4.5                                    5.5

Games on neutral fields will split the difference between the home and away points.  For example,
Alabama will get 9.9 points for playing Wisconsin, i.e., (8.9+10.9) divided by 2.

This all uses Coforepr’s Ultimate Top 25 Composite as published Friday, August 21.

SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY OF TOP 30 TEAMS

Sched. Rank      Team                    Composite Rank        Difficulty Points
1                   Alabama                                     3                           89.6
2                   Arkansas                                   21                          82.0
3                   Mississippi State                        –                           74.2
4                   Texas A&M                                 –                           73.8
5                   Auburn                                       7                           70.3
6                   Southern California                  8                           64.8
7                   Mississippi                                14                          61.8
8                   Louisiana State                         12                         61.2
9                   Georgia                                      10                         54.2
10                 Stanford                                     20                         52.8
11                 Tennessee                                 24                          52.1
12                 Georgia Tech                             17                          51.9
13                 Arizona State                             16                          50.3
14                 Oregon                                         6                          47.2
15                 Arizona                                       22                          45.2
16                 U.C.L.A.                                       15                          43.6
17                 Notre Dame                               11                          43.1
18                 Oklahoma                                  18                          42.3
19                 Missouri                                     25                          37.9
20                 Oklahoma State                          –                            32.7
21                 Michigan State                            5                           31.6
22                 Clemson                                     13                          30.3
23                 Baylor                                           4                          30.0
24                 Texas Christian                            2                          29.0
25                 Florida State                                9                           23.5
26                 Virginia Tech                                –                           23.4
27                 Nebraska                                      –                           20.3
28                 Wisconsin                                   19                          18.6 **
29                 Ohio State                                    1                           18.6 **
30                 Boise State                                  23                            0

**  Wisconsin gets the nod here because playing Alabama in Texas is tougher than getting
.     Michigan State at home.   Though their fans have a history of travelling well, the Badgers
.     will find out that Arlington, Texas, is hardly a neutral site when you’re playing Alabama.

Ohio State’s 2016 schedule would accumulate 40.5 points for a more respectable 19th place.
The Buckeyes’ 2015 schedule is a joke, but they’re not the only ones who have it easy.  Four of the top five teams have schedules that lie in the lowest third in the rankings above.
And then there’s Alabama, which faces the toughest schedule by far.

All seven SEC West teams rank in the top eight for schedule difficulty because they have to play each other!

Boise State doesn’t face a single top 30 opponent.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s